Document aB85n8nqyGYbLRqRgd77XqqJM

To: Tracy Mehan[tmehan@awwa.org] From: Tracy Mehan Sent: Tue 4/18/2017 2:22:07 PM Subject: Blue Skies over Beijing Blue Skies over Beiiinq.pdf Dear Colleague, If you have any interest in Chinese environmental issues, you may find this review essay of mine of interest. All the best. Tracy G. Tracy Mehan, III Executive Director, Government Affairs American Water Works Association 202-326-6125 (direct) 703-850-9401 (cell) Attachment This communication is the property of the American Water Works Association and may contain confidential or privileged information. Unauthorized use of this communication is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately notify the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the communication and any attachments. American Water Works Association 17cv1906 Sierra Club v. EPA - 6/22 Production ED 001523 00008383-00001 Dedicated to the World's Most Important Resource 17cv1906 Sierra Club v. EPA - 6/22 Production ED 001523 00008383-00002 In the Literature China's New Urban Cohort ware found to be "polluted" or "seri ously polluted." And who can forget the 16,000 dead pigs found in tribu A Journey Up and Down the Kuznets Curve taries of Shanghai's river, the Hangpu, the source of its tqcwater? By G. Tracy Mehan III Pollution is widespread throughout China'sfarmland. Forty-four percent of rioesamplescontained poisonous levels hina, like the former Soviet ment, and the quality of life notwith of cadmium in Guangzhou, the capital CUnion, is plagued by envi standing growing affluenoefor what ronmental challenges experi these authors call the "new urban co enced only by a country or sochioertyt." Upon these people Kahn and city of Guangdong Province. Accord ing to K^in aid Zheng, "Itisestimated that the country loses US$3 billion per where the government technicZahlelyng wi 11 depend for a h^cpy endi ng yea- to soil pollution, aid that between and practically owns everything, fails to their story, as will be seen below. 40 percent aid 70 percent of China's to respect rights of private property, Of oourse the book's title must be soil isalready contaminated with hea/y subsidizes industrial production, taken as aspi rational rather than de metalsand toxic fertilizers." obliterates the distinction between scriptive. In January 2013 particu But Kahn aid Zheng are optimists regulated and regulator, and sup late matter concentration in Beijing as wall as realistsand bring economists' presses free and open elections and "reached levels of two, three, and even eyes and sensibilities to the quest for anything I ike a consistent rule of law, four times the public health emer environmental progress in China. while harboring a brutalist view of gency threshold of 250 micrograns Fundamentally, they are trying to natural resources and the environ per cubic meter--aid up to 40 times provide empirical, graiular evidence ment. In such places government what the World Health Organiza for the application of an eoonomic failure rivals market failure as the tion considers a healthy level," report theory heralding positive environmen cause of many, if not most, tal change by and for 1.357 environmental problems. billion Chines. However, sinoe its move lue Skies Over Beijing: Many economists, seeing toward eoonomic, not po Economic Growth and the the environmental degrada litical, liberalization of the Environment in China. By tion aid ultimate rena/val eoonomy in the 1980s, Vlatthew E. Kahn and Siqi of Western Europe, North China has suooaeded at least Eheng. Princeton University America, Japan, aid other in producing wealth for its 'ress; 271 pages; $32.95. countries, detect a link be population. As described tween eoonomic growth aid in Matthew E. Kahn and a demaid for or a wi 11 i ngness Siqi Zheng's impressive new to pay for environmental im book Blue Skies over Beijing: provements, over the medi Eoonomic Growth and the um or long term, at least for Environment in China, over some parameters. Thpolicy the last 30 ysars, the nation's schola Seven F. Hayward economy grew "at an amaz offered a suocinct descrip - ing rate of 10 percent per year, and Kahn aid Zheng. Also, 12 of the 20 tion of the theory in a provocativreessay the share of people living below the most polluted cities in the world are entitled "TbChina Syndromeand the poverty line fell from 84 peroent to 13 in China. Environmental Kuznets Curve." peroent. China is also the world's largest According to Hayward, the Kuznets "Therarestill hundredsof millions emitter of greenhouse gaBes, with per Curve "holds that the relationship be of poor households in rural China, but cqcita GHG emissions growing by tween eoonomic growth and environ hundredsof millions have also escaped 186 percent between 1990 and 2010 mental quality isan inverted U-shape, poverty," write Kahn aid Zheng. versus the world's 16 peroent. Thirep - according to which environmental "Over the last 30 years, the average life resents 25 peroent of the worldwide conditions deteriorate during early expectancy at birth has increased from carbon dioxide pollution from fossil stages of eoonomic growth but begin 66 to 73 years." fuels. to improve after a certain threshold Even with a draconian one-child 57 peroent of the groundwater in of wealth is achieved. Thffiriginal policy, China'scities continue to grow 198 cities was official lyated as "bad" Kuznets Curve was named for Nobel massively aid generate horrendous or "extremely bad" in 2012 while more laureateSimon Kuznets, who postulat threats to human health, the environ than 30 peroent of China'smajor rivers ed in the 1950sthat income inequality 8 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM 17cv1906 Sierra Club v. EPA - 6/22 Production ED 001523 00008384-00001 In the Literature first increases and than declines with in coastal areas, continuing to "dein Therds also the question as to eoonomic growth. In 1991 econo dustrialize as improvements in trans whether or not the Kuznets magic mists Gene M. Grossman and Alai B. portation networks, high laid prioes, works for other environmental mat Krueger suggested the Kuznets Curvre high wages, aid increasing environ ters such as water quality, Fdnda habi Replied to the environment." mental regulation encourage dirty fac tat, massive dan building, fisheries, Kahn aid Zheng build on this tories to relocate to secondary dties. biodiversity, forestry, solid waste, and hypothesis (they cite Grcesmai aid Thisndustrial migration could cause greenhouse gases (Hayward noted Krueger in their notes) that suggests, increased pollution levels in the dties progress in some of these areas of re again, an invrerss-U association exists where heavy manufacturing grows, source management.). Nevertheless, between per capita inoomeaid pollu but this pessimistic view implicitly as the hypothesis seems to be plausible tion: "Intuitively, this hypothecs pcsits sumes that the new factories opening directionally. that as poor cities grow wealthier, such up will be just as dirty as the old facto Nothing is predestined in govern eoonomicgrowth causesenvi ronmental ries that are dosing." mental policy, and the authors outline degradation, but thatasmiddle-inoome seen differentkinds of evidence that, cities grow wealthier, such economic over time, might contradict their "oore growth contributes to environmental ssuming the Kuznets Curve daim that many major cities will ex improvements." Theylook carefully at the relationship between particulate matter air pollution aid per capita in A is a valid concept, how does perience environmental improvement ca country or sodety translate in the medium term," such as the Chi eoonomic growth into environmennetasel central government's returning to come, estimating that Chines cities improvements without democraatmiconomaiiacal focus on local GDP whose per capita gross domestic prod elections and the rule of law, as has growth or the Communist Forty's in uct is greater than $13,000 are pst the been the case in most of the countries sisting on low energy prices or sup turning point, so that eoonom icgrowth tripping along the curve over the last pressing media coverage of environ is positively associated with improve forty years? In some of the more in mental matters. It isdisturbing to note ments to the envi ronment. teresting parts of the book, Kahn and that when dting their many interview "Our city-leel results suggest that Zheng describe the role of social me with Chines citizens or local elected 33out of 85 cities in China (where 140 dia, microblogs, blogs, documentary officialsthe authors only us al iass or million peoplelive)are films posted on line psudonyms. already experiencing a lowering" of particu late matter, fie incomes Will the urban elites provide the needed aid, from time to time, riots aid dvil insurrection. They Matthew Kahn and Siqi Zheng provide a wealth of data, informa tion, and analysis of the many aspects rise the authors expect pressure to reduce present case after cseb, of the Chines urban environment. that the number of ur banites enjoying better killing air pollution? along with the obser Theplso provide a menu of marketvation that the central based approaches which might help air quality will increase Chines government the Chines on their journey up and to368 million after 2020. Thissignif - seems to be tolerating more environ down the Kuznets Curve. Thepffer icant because of the estimated 300,000 mental activism as a means of pressur a rich, nuanoed, and sophisticated to 500,000 premature deaths in China ing local governments, mayors, and view of the current state of envi caused by particulate matter each year even state-owned enterprises to dean ronmental play in China and a rea in 2003-13. up their act. sonable cas for cautious optimism. Regarding the Kuznets Curve, Without using the term, the au American readers may recall our own "This not esoteric academic debate," thors ssem to argue that the current history of environmental degrada write Kahn aid Zheng. Thiiypoth - regime in China is as much concerned tion when assesing the chanoes of esis assumes that eoonomic growth is with its legitimacy as is aiy govern success in China. See, for instance, both a foe and a friend to the envi ron ment. And no longer do they have an Chapter 9 of Upton Sinclair's The ment in that order. "Thevidenoe we absolute monopoly on information as Jungb on the horrible state of Bub have reported in this book suggests it relates to environmental spills, acci bly Creek, a tributary of the Chicago that young Chines people's concep dents, dead pigs, and deal air. Thair River circa 1906. tion of the `good life' is very similar to monitoring station at the U.S. embas that of their U.S. and western Euro sy in Beijing makes several star turns G. Tracy Mehan III is executive director for pean peers. Rising educational attain throughout the book. Evidently, the government affairs at the American Water ment and per cqcita income in China daily smog alerts are fed into the ether Works Association and an adjunct professor will stimulate an increased demaid for aid picked up by cell phones, web at the Antonin Scalia School of Law, George a dealer urban environment." sites, and conversationalists through Mason University. He may be contacted at The^cresee major cities, espedally out thedty almost instantaneously. tmehan@awwa.org. 17cv1906 Sierra Club v. EPA - 6/22 Production JULY/AUGUST 20 1 7| 9 ED 001523 00008384-00002