Document R2b6ZVMEKR4aL4nqRJdEen7

How Do We Plan for an Integrated Energy Network? Adam Diamant Technical Executive Energy & Environmental Analysis Tom Wilson Principal Technical Executive Energy & Environmental Analysis 36th Seminar on Fuels, Power Markets & Resource Planning November 8-9, 2017 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA L"-- T I ICI1 B i^ 1 'r.w.w* ' ow ED_001523_00006098-00001 Purpose of the Session Key Takeaways from Presentation - The Integrated Energy Network (IEN) requires re-thinking planning. - EPRI plans to publish a white paper later this year that highlights the 10 key IEN-planning (IEN-P) planning challenges - EPRI, members, and others are actively seeking advances - EPRI is aligning key R&D activities to address challenges Goals for this Presentation - Inform seminar participants about new planning challenges - Describe EPRI activities to address IEN-P challenges - Obtain your feedback and suggestions 2017 Electric Power Research institute, ine M\ ici i - ' 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00002 Part 1 EPRI Integrated Energy Network and Resource Planning 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--1 ICI i ED_001523_00006098-00003 The Electric Sector Continues to Transform Rapidly Rapidly changing the resource mix : 2018 Changing system characteristics and interaction of system resources. Drivers of change - Technology cost and performance - Deployment of utility-scale VER - Low natural gas fuel prices - New environmental regulations - Integrated grid and DER deployment - Changing (net) load shapes - Changing customer behavior ; j p" p'S s'P '. V- ; - ----- -............. ? 272' :::: 2:^2 U.S. Net Electricity Generation from Select Fuels (billion kilowatt hours). Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2017. 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00004 The Energy Future -- Selected "Global Points of View" Using Cleaner Energy Efficiency emerges across the energy sector Electricity demand outpaces energy demand Efficient electrification is an opportunity toward a cleaner future Transportation becomes more efficient and cleaner Producing Cleaner Energy Energy reduces its environmental footprint Central-station generation serves an anchor role Renewable energy deploys rapidly Integrating Energy Resources Connections across energy sources important Integrated electric grid is key enabler Higher expectations for power quality/reliability Security/resiliency challenges and opportunities 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00005 Flexible central generation, storage, new loads, active customers and better forecasts balance variable generation Physical connections augmented by secure data and communications 6 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i ED_001523_00006098-00006 Emerging System Characteristics & Planning Impacts Technology Trends Renewables & Gas Replacing Coal Increased Electrification DER & Automation System Impacts Variability/Uncertainty Inverter Resources Gas System Interaction New Resource Characteristics Load Uncertainty T&D Interactions 2-Way Power Flow Displace Central Gen Planning Needs Load Forecast Models New Resource Models Probabilistic Methods Operational Reliability U Non-Power System Interactions T&D System Interactions 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00007 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00008 Why Call It Integrated Energy Network Planning? Integrated - Includes supply resources and demand-side options like traditional IRP - Integrates electric generation, transmission and distribution (G,T&D) planning - Electricity and other key resources & infrastructure (e.g., natural gas, water, transport) Energy - Focused primarily on the electric sector, but also.... - Includes related energy resources (e.g., natural gas) Network - Applies to the entire electric grid, including transmission and distribution - Applies more broadly to the energy network and associated infrastructure Planning - Focus on the planning time horizon (5-20+ years) - Provide a framework to plan strategic company and ratepayer investments 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00009 Key Insights from EPRI's IEN-P Initiative The electric sector is transforming rapidly A new integrated power system planning paradigm is needed EPRI has identified 10 key resource planning challenges Integrated Energy Network Planning (IEN-P) includes electricity and other critical resources & infrastructure EPRI R&D is beginning to address these challenges 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. ED_001523_00006098-00010 Goals of EPRI's IEN-P White Paper Identify and describe key resource planning challenges Communicate the magnitude of these challenges Identify planning capabilities and processes that must evolve Identify research gaps White paper critical to galvanizing the industry's thinking and bringing all stakeholders together 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00011 Part 2 Integrated Energy Network Resource Planning Challenges 12 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--1 ICI i ED_001523_00006098-00012 lEN Resource Planning Challenges Categjoryy Modeling the Changing Resource Mix Kev IEN Plannina Challenae 1. Incorporating operational detail 2. Increasing modeling girinukanty 3. Integrating generation, transmission, & distribution planning 4. Expanding analysis boundaries and interfaces Ensuring Adequate 5. Incorporating new planning objectives and constraints System Attributes 6. Integrating v/hole mie powei market-, New Inputs <or Resource Planning 7. Improving forecasting 8. Addressing uncertainty and managing risk 9. Improving modeling of customer behavior and interaction 10.Supporting expanded stakeholder engagement 13 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. l--l id i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00013 1. Incorporating Operational Detail 1 ... Evaluate and address potential reliability impacts (e.g., frequency response, voltage stability and short circuit considerations) associated with the changing resource mix. It is becoming more important to incorporate operational reliability ww M 0 . ma w Wi Wh M* 32 CttB WKS- a W3 tsk Wind and Solar Generation Can Increase Power System Flexibility Needs. Source: Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems, 21st Century Power Partnership. capabilities (e.g., ramping rates, minimum generation levels), and adverse interactions (e.g., variability, uncertainty, active and reactive control capabilities) into resource planning. Existing resource adequacy metrics (e.g., LOLE) may not be the "best" or only metric to use to measure electric reliability. 14 - 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. L--.1 iCXi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00014 2. Increasing Modeling Granularity Temporal Resolution - Hourly I sub-hourly time steps and multiple timeframes - Evaluation of energy storage systems and variable renewable resources require inter-temporal constraints and opportunities to be more fully recognized. - Understand potential net load impacts from utility renewable generation, customer choice, storage, DER deployment, and increased electrification. ' Geographic Resolution - "Birds of a feather flock together" - EVs and rooftop PV typically are adopted in neighborhoods, so disproportionally impact circuits. Traditional deterministic and stochastic modeling do not capture the geographic nature of customer preferences. - DER targeting and location have a direct impact on transmission and generation investment decisions and depend on customer preferences. 15 iicseiwitt nc. AH rights reserved. O BARB 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00015 3. Integrating G, T, and D Planning TSO/DSO interaction increasingly , ` is important, particularly as the _ distribution system provides more .. services ` 1 * 9s ' il tO f| Evaluate "non-wires alternatives" that may provide higher value than transmission or generation development DER valuation and targeting, including locational attributes Improve communications and "hand shakes" between planning functions Connections to other critical infrastructure (e.g., natural gas, H2O, EVs) 16 11 nc. AH rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00016 4. Expanding Analysis Boundaries Interactions with other sectors of the economy to achieve least-cost GHG emissions reductions (e.g., CA SB-350) "Gas-electric" coordination to better optimize planning and operations of natural gas fuels with electric operations Energy-water nexus - Planning to address both consumption and use of water in power generation and potential impacts of power gen eration on water resources is becoming more prominent. Multi-jurisdictional planning - Some companies are now facing conducting resource planning across multiple jurisdictions in an integrated manner. Examples include PacifiCorp in the western US and Duke in the eastern U.S. 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. l--l lezi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00017 5. New Planning Objectives and Constraints GHG emissions and RPS - CA requires IRPs to achieve least-cost GHG emissions CO reductions and aggressive RPS targets. Water resources - Some electric companies are being asked to consider impacts on local water resources. Renewable portfolio standard Renewable portfolio goal * Extra cre[M for s0,ar ,, customer.sited renewables t Includes non-renewable alternative resources 29 States + Washington DC + 3 territories have a Renewable Porfolio Standard Source: www.dsireusa.org / February 2017 Resiliency - Electric companies are being asked to more fully address system resiliency in resource planning. This includes two facets: - Physical - Protect the system from extreme weather events and restore it - Cyber- Protect the electric system from cybersecurity threats and restore it 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00018 6. Wholesale Power Market Interactions Interactions between companies and ISO/RTOs markets are starting to create new challenges for resource planners. Planners are challenged by considering buying and selling energy, capacity, and ancillary services (A/S) rather than building new resources or procuring "own" resources. Growing need to project uncertain potential future wholesale power prices, and incorporate them into modeling tools. Growing need to better understand how A/S and capacity markets may evolve, and impacts on future value of power resources. Planning methods will have to consider how ISOs/RTO markets will value different resource capabilities in the future. 19 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00019 7. Improving Forecasting California Residuai Load with Solar Generation Key areas of forecasting are critical for robust long-term resource planning. - Electric load - DER adoption - Natural gas prices -- Weather Mar-28 Mar-29 Mar-30 Mar-31 Apr-1 Apr-2 Apr-3 Source: EPRi Need to better characterize natural uncertainty inherent in these key factors, and gain insights using computationally tractable methods. The ability to analyze "big data" related to DER, customer behavior, operations and other aspects of the future electric system may require new analysis capabilities and computational power. 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--1 ICi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00020 8. Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty Risk - Deterministic v. stochastic modeling - Deterministic modeling and scenario analysis may not be adequate. Planners may need to do more stochastic modeling to capture the inherent uncertainty in the electric system. - Non-market risks - Growing need to develop methods and approaches to evaluate "non-market" risks, such as a perceived lack of "fuel diversity," and the ability to respond to changes in the external operating, policy and regulatory environments. Uncertainty - Becoming increasingly important to incorporate forecast uncertainty and variability in future loads, VER production, and DER adoption and use. - Production profiles for VERs are uncertain over time horizons from minutes to years, with each different time horizon causing their own challenges - Capacity values for variable generation are uncertain - VERs can increase variability and volatility of energy prices - Increasing DR capabilities may make it more difficult to forecast load 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. L--.1 iCXi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00021 9. Customer Behavior and Interaction Customer behavior is expected to have a direct and tangible impact on resource planning in the future. Some ways customer behavior and resource planning may interact include: - Behind the meter generation (e.g., solar PV) - DER approaches, such as EE and DR - Electric transportation, electrification, and smart devices - Electric rates and rate structures may impact consumer behavior, electric demand, and planning 22 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00022 10. Expanding External Stakeholder Engagement The primary audience for company IRPs traditionally has been state PUCs and other regulators. Additional important audiences have included business associations, environmental and consumer advocates, and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In recent years, public expectations regarding involvement in company resource planning have changed dramatically - New stakeholders are engaged and participating in the planning process - Stakeholders want to address a broader array of issues than have been addressed in company resource planning in the past (e.g., rate design, rate setting, others...) - Stakeholders are becoming engaged in the entire resource planning process More companies now are engaged in designing and managing extensive stakeholder engagement processes related to resource planning activities. 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. L--.1 iCXi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00023 Part3 Actions to Address IEN-P Challenges 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. Ail rights reserved. czi**ie.i ED_001523_00006098-00024 Actions to Address IEN-P Challenges EPRI Actions - Program research - provides essential pieces - Technology innovation - crosses disciplines and provides thought leadership - Demonstration programs Academia I National Labs I Consultants & Others Company actions -- Examples include: - Duke Energy - Southern California Edison - Southern Company 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. I--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00025 EPRI Programs that Explore Aspects of the IEN-P Modeling the Changing Resource Mix 18. Electric Transportation 39. Grid Operations 55. Water Availability and Resource Risk Management 94. Energy Storage and Distributed Generation 170. End-use Energy Efficiency and Demand Response 173. Bulk System Integration of Variable Renewable Resources 174. Integration of Distributed Energy Resources 200. Distribution System Operations and Planning 201. Energy, Environmental and Climate Analysis Ensuring Adequate System Attributes 40. Grid Planning 41. 11.01. Flexible Nuclear Operations 66. Fossil Fleet for Tomorrow 178. Integrated Energy Systems Planning, Market Analysis and Technology Assessment 193. Renewable Generation New Inputs for Resource Planning 182. Understanding Electric Utility Customers 198. Strategic Sustainability Science 199. Electrification for Customer Productivity 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--.1 ICI i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00026 Framework for Integrated Energy Network Planning (IEN-P) - Phase 2 Co-Optimization of Generation and Transmission Expansion Investment Decisions Linking Distribution and Transmission Models to Assess Impact of DER on Bulk System Benchmarking EPRI Production Cost and Capacity Expansion Modeling Tools Screening of Hourly Power Flow Scenarios for Stability and Reliability Assessments Integrating a Customer Model into EPRI Modeling Tools for Generation. Transmission, and Distribution Operations and Planning Market Design and Resource Expansion Framework to Ensure System Resiliency Reduced-Form Air Quality Modeling Tools for Timely. Cost-Effioent Multiple US-REGEN Scenario Analysis Endogenizing Emerging Technology Learning Curves in US-REGEN Power System Strategic Analyses Dataset Potential Biopower Systems for U.S. Deep Decarbonization Analysis of US-Canada Electric Sector Interactions with a Focus on Hydropower Assessing the System Value of Advanced Generation Technologies Hydro Valuation in High Variable Generation Future Hydrogen Technology Modeling Initiative Framework for Integrated G,T, & D Planning x x x x x xxx x x x x x xxx x X X X X X X X X X X x x xxx xxx X X X X xxx 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00027 Next Steps Q4 2017: Publish IEN-P whitepaper Q2 2018: Publish EPRI Tl whitepaper on linking G, T & D planning tools Q4 2018: IEN-P case studies / workshop On-going: EPRI annual research program R&D efforts 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00028 Together.. Shaping the Future of Electricity Adam Diamant Technical Executive Energy & Environmental Analysis 510-260-9105 adiamant@epri.com Tom Wilson Principal Technical Executive Energy & Environmental Analysis 650-855-7928 twilson@epri.com 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. U--.1 ICI 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00029 Appendix Summary of EPRI lEN-P Research 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA 2017 Electric Power Research Institute. Inc. All rights reserved. u--l ICI i ED_001523_00006098-00030 Research Summary (1 of 3) Framework for Integrated Energy Network Planning (IEN-P) - Phase 2: Continue EPRI's efforts to develop a more comprehensive Framework for Integrated Energy Network Planning (2 years) * * Co-Optimization of Generation and Transmission Investment Decisions: Investigate state-ofthe-art approaches while proposing improvements and/or developing new techniques for practical implementation (2 years) * * * Linking Distribution and Transmission Models to Assess Impact of DER on Bulk System: Develop a link between EPRI's DER hosting capacity tools for Distribution and Transmission (2 years) * * * Benchmarking Production Cost and Capacity Expansion Modeling Tools: Benchmark EPRI's EGEAS software against other models; Assess applicability of EGEAS for solving some of the key IEN-P challenges (3 years)* * Screening of Hourly Power Flow Scenarios for Stability and Reliability Assessments: Develop a high-level, steady-state screening framework and set of metrics to identify critical scenarios requiring detailed steady-state and time-domain dynamic analysis (2 years) * * = ENV, * = GEN, * = PDU, * = NUC 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. >CXi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00031 Research Summary (2 of 3) Integrating a Customer Model into EPRI Modeling Tools for G, T & D Operations and Planning: Develop analytical tools for customer model on technology adoption and usage and the impact on electricity demand; Integrate with EPRI planning models (3 years) * * Market Design and Resource Expansion Framework to Ensure System Resiliency: Evaluate the market design and resource expansion changes needed to ensure systems remain reliable during extreme events or recovers quickly from such an event (2 years) * * * Reduced-Form Air Quality Modeling Tools for Timely, Cost-Efficient, Multiple US-REGEN Scenario Analysis: Develop a model that interfaces with US-REGEN to estimate air quality impacts from multiple scenarios quickly, efficiently, and at lower costs than traditional complex chemical transport models (1 year)* Endogenizing Emerging Technology Learning Curves in US-REGEN: Improve the representation of innovation and technological change for emerging technologies within USREGEN by developing and implementing endogenous learning (2 years) * * * * Power System Strategic Analyses Dataset: Develop a sustainable approach for maintaining the data needed to support detailed quantitative analyses; Exercise the data and tools to demonstrate the integrated grid cost-benefit methodology (2 years) * * * * . = ENV * = GEN * = PDU * = r 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. >CXi i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00032 Research Summary (3 of 3) Potential Biopower Systems for Deep Decarbonization: Provide characterizations of future advanced biopower systems, deployment, and value for deep decarbonization of the energy system (1 year)* * Analysis of US-Canada Electric Sector Interactions with a Focus on Hydropower: Add representation of the Canadian power system to US-REGEN; Analyze US-Canada electric sector interactions, including focused evaluation of Canadian hydropower energy (2 years) * * Assessing the System Value of Advanced Generation Technologies: Assess existing tools/models for high-level analysis of system cost and value of advanced generation technologies (2 years) * * * * Hydro Valuation in High Variable Generation Future: Examine modeling needs and develop a methodology to assess the value of hydro in a system with high penetration of variable generation (2 years) * * * Hydrogen Technology Modeling Initiative: Utilize EPRI modeling tools to evaluate scenarios where H2 technologies could be a least-cost option to meet grid operations requirements and inform investment decisions in technology demonstrations and/or assets (2 years) * * * * * = ENV, * = GEN, * = PDU, * = NUC 2017 Electric Power Research Institute .Inc. Ail rights reserved. L--.1 1CX1 i 17cv01906 Sierra Club v. EPA ED_001523_00006098-00033