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Nolan, Robert M [robert.m.nolan@exxonmobil.com] 1O/19/2O18 3:1O:3O AM Gunasekara, Mandy [Gunasekara.Mandy@epa.gov] Fwd: Research: IMO 2O2O, Refiner Profits and Voter Perceptions
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Robert Nolan 202-862-0203 202-302-8665 (cell)
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From: ClearView Energy Partners, LLC <researchACVEnergy.com> Date: October 18, 2018 at 8:06:30 PM EDT To: <robert.m.nolanAexxonmobil.com> Subject: Research: IMO 2020, Refiner Profits and Voter Perceptions Reply-To: ClearView Energy Partners, LLC <researchACVEnergy.com>
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Robert, *** your personalized link to the full research note follows the body of this e-mail *** IMO 2020, REFINER PROFITS AND VOTER PERCEPTIONS
2024-EPA-05254
Sierra Club FOIA 2024-EPA-05254
ED_017426_00001834-00001
SC_EVERSPLIT0001141
On October 22, the.International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Marine.Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) will convene a week-long session in London. At that meeting, according to a Wall Street Journal article published this evening, the Trump Administration plans to propose a phased-in "experience-building" period that could slow the onset of the IMO's January 1, 2020 reduction of marine fuel sulfur content from 3.5% to 0.5%. We anticipated some form of Presidential intervention in our September 26, 2018 report, The IMO Y2k2D Scenario, notwithstanding that U.S. refiners appear well positioned to benefit if the rule leads to market tightness for low-sulfur distillates. As we noted, pump prices tend to trump (small "t") producer profits, especially in distillate-heated, East Coast "swing states" that voted for President Donald Trump (with a big "T") in 2016, especially Pennsylvania. Next week's effort could face long odds, in our view, due in part,to the short timeframe available for changing a final,regulation forged in a multilateral forum. We would also suggest that IMO stakeholders who are pushing for marine fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards -- a policy shift in the opposite direction from the delay proposal -- may try to block the proposal, too.
CLEARVIEW---
2018-10- I 8-1MO 2020 Phase n.[10
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2024-EPA-05254
Sierra Club FOIA 2024-EPA-05254
ED_017426_00001834-00002
SC_EVERSPLIT0001142