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Nadeau, Robert [Robert.Nadeau@fema.dhs.gov] 9/3/2017 10:35:34 AM Carlos Mercader [cmercader@prfaa.pr.gov]; Rochelle Corneiro [rochelle.corneiro@go.vi.gov]; Christine Diaz [Christine.Diaz@eog.myflorida.com] Killian, Adam [adam.killian@fema.dhs.gov]; Hudak, Mary [Mary.Hudak@fema.dhs.gov]; Caetano, Donald [Donald.Caetano@fema.dhs.gov]; Mize, Nancy [Nancy.Mize@fema.dhs.gov]; Strouse, Philip [Philip.Strouse@fema.dhs.gov] FW: Hurricane Irma #16
Carlos, Rochelle, Christine, Please see latest on Hurricane Irma. Bob
Sent from my iFEMA mobile device.
Robert Nadeau, CEM Deputy Director, Intergovernmental Affairs Division FEMA Office o f External Affairs 500 C St. SW Washington D C. 20472 Desk.2Q2-212-5.I93.... i_R_o_b_e_r_t_.EN_x_a_d. _e6_a_u_@_f_e_m!a.dhs.gov
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From: Green, Matthew Sent: Sunday, September 3, 2017 4:58:53 AM To: Hersey, Tiffany; HLT Subject: Hurricane Irma #16
...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA... At 5am AST, Hurricane Irma was located 945 miles east of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 969 mb.
Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph, and this course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast on Monday. Irma is a category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Monday night.
While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 hours. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Ponce, PR
36%
Aguadilla, PR
40%
San Juan, PR
48%
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00065150-00001
Vieques, PR Saint Thomas, VI Saint Croix, VI
48% 57% 46%
Hurricane Irma Graphics
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00065150-00002
Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
?
ISW
J*.
ill
I
Hurricane irma
Storm Location & Five-day
SAudnv.isSoerpy. 136, 2017 S am AST D<W3i4ndS)p3e4e-dS3(kn^ot*s)54 $ 10
10K
All Times AST
f receiving sustained 34+ knot (38+ mph) winds
30 40 50 50 70 SO 90 *00 %
l@fema.dhs
000 WTNT31 KNHC 030846 TCPAT1
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017
...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC... INFORMATION
LOCATION...18.ON 47.5W ABOUT 945 M I ...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 M P H ...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 M P H ... 24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB ... 28.62 INCHES
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00065150-00003
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Irma .
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 47.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Monday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
None
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$ Forecaster Berg
Sierra Club v. E P A 18cv3472 NDCA
Tier 1
ED 002061 00065150-00004