Document 5D3EDqrZZowLKNGEEJRZ58QJD

LIA16425 _ <*. i frt'jft.fcrariemfrS liiirtifciiMaMBaMyhlirfi* I LEAD INDUSTRIES ASSOCIATION____ 4*0 UDOMOTON AVSNUW NKW TOM IT. M. T. * TTTR.'jnm vus* ?. B. Prfcfcstt X. lt da Bent de R**ours X Company Wilalngtoo, Dolswars : la ecnasnting on the outlook fee I*ad consumption for the production of \ tetrrathyl la.-.d, I .-j s la th poeltloe of trying to toll you sc--thing about which yon el ready should hoy* knowledge. A naasure of future wstallie load requirements for tetristhyl lend production oca bo attained by asking yourself "Hew ouch driving will be dans by ay household this year", Hoe such gaaolins will X use la 195), cr 1951a, or 19$S*. Multiply your answer by the 31 aUlioo passenger ear owning boon*-- bold. in the Onited States. To this add the services of the tracking and aviation industries you will utillis, and you will bo very dose to ths domestic dearnd far tetmsthyl load. Thus the industry's market is dependent wholly tgxs ths wotor fuel sales of the petroleum Industry, so to look into eet.illie lead eoasuwptlOD lt is aseeesary to exanins your sotorlag plans and to cnr rider the problem of the prtrole\a industry. Speaking wore precisely, the consumption ef tetraethyl lead is ths protest 9 of ths unit quantity of this antiknock agent added to each gallon or barrel of actor fuel, and of ths deaaad for actor and aviation gasolines. Considering ths first factor, ths trend of caerrcsslco ratios of Aaorlean built autcnohile engines it continuing upward with no sign of abatement. As long as this baric lnflucr.es prevails, higher and higher octane nunbers aust be provided far ttee. While jet engines are partially replacing piston engines for aircraft, this development is act expected to reduce aviation gasoline consumption during ths next five years, further, it is indicated that the low octane gasoline* pre sently used outride ths United States end Canada will soon bo uaacoeptable. Tbars are only two procedures by which ths petrolem industry oaa provide octane nunbers In gascllne. These are by the addition of cn antiknock agent or by special refining procedures. Other then tetraethyl lead, no antiknock rgent having a prospect of cosmcreialiutlon has ever been developed. Bence, ths ca^etltion resolves Itself into ths relative oooocmios of tetraethyl lead use and refining t prooesses. txnsdninf ths Indices of eruds cdl prices, construction costs and wags levels, ws find that these three aoat important factors influencing gasoline pro-- oessing rnd realisation of octane nunbers by refining have sore than doubled aihos 19C0. On ths other band, tstraothyl lead sails for essentially ths sms prlos as it did thirteen years ego. Therefore, ws expect an Increasingly favorable eliaato for the use of tetraethyl load, and the octena values added by tetraethyl lead should continue to increase. Presented at the 25th Annual nesting, Lead Industries Association. April 9-10, 1953, Vfhiu. Sulphur Springs, ct the Prncl Discussion ' of lead Constaera. b mh - | * ^ac8tfc'.wa iinr iiiniimiMi LIA16A26 ,0a Tetraethyl lead - 2 T. B. Trickat* 1 0 8 A* to the second factor * deoand for motor fuel - here tha post |lfH a clue to tha future, banco tha following data cm Motor fuel production for cartels years between 19l*0 and 1952 say ka of Interart. Total Motor fuel Production Ex. U.S.S.R. 1 Sate111tar . tnnionr of Barralr - Onited States Balance df Varld Total 151*0 191*6 1990 1952 617 m 1,021* 1,190 120 190 320 377 737 997 1,31*1* 1,567 Since 15L6, world wide production of Carolina has Increased nearly sins percent an.ually, and while this rata of increase any not eoctinua, it la indioetlvs of an expanding asrket. Since the relationship of tha two factors affecting tetraethyl lead use era favorable, we expect a healthy and steady increase in tha industry's constant!on of Thils it la not egr Intention to specifically forecast lead ccnauwptior., seas ecsnenta on tha world capacity, crclading U.S.5.R. and satellites, tor tetraethyl lead production wey be of Interact. During 1952 sane 160 thousand tons of natal lie lead wars constaod fay tha world's tetraethyl lead producers. Eotb United States producers have expended capacity during tha last twelve sooths and the producer in tha United ticgtjaa expecte to have expended faeilitlea in operation by Jenuary 1, 1952*. Is the result of these programs world capacity will bo above 650 dill on pounds annually. If it is assuaed the expanded facilities will operate at 852 of capacity in the reasonably near future, an annual lead conauaption of 185 thousand tons will result. I aaa DO reason far the lead producers to be pesslalstle as far as tetraethyl lead is con cerned. .;uj. Jisuuen. m mssmm